Every case study below is a real client engagement. Names are used with permission or anonymized by client preference.
A small family office owned an 8-suite boutique inn in Virginia that had stalled mid-construction due to a contractor change. They had a cash offer on the table for $983K but owed $1.19M on the property. Selling would mean a $271K out of pocket loss.
We modeled two complete paths. Option A analyzed selling at 7 different price points to show the full range of outcomes. Option B modeled completing construction with a $2.325M hard money loan at 12.99%, followed by a conventional refinance at 6.75%.
We built a full Year 1 monthly pro forma, 5-year annual projections, and 5 separate sensitivity analyses. We also modeled an expansion scenario: 8 suites vs. 13 suites with a $500K additional construction budget.
The 8-suite completion scenario showed $207K Year 1 NOI with positive free cash flow by Year 2. The 13-suite expansion scenario showed $346K Year 2 NOI. The analysis gave the client clear, data driven conviction to complete construction rather than sell at a significant loss.
Deliverables: Multi-scenario pro forma, 5-year projections, 5 sensitivity analyses, expansion feasibility, sell vs. complete decision framework
Amanda Larrinaga of Turning Tree Properties was evaluating an 11-unit, 12,183 SF senior living facility in Washington. The property was operating as an independent living facility (ILF) at 100% occupancy generating $120K in annual revenue, but it was originally built and licensed as an assisted living facility (ALF) with $640K in revenue potential.
We modeled three acquisition structures side by side: a ground lease ($0 upfront), conventional financing ($689K down at 6.0%), and seller financing ($429K down at 9.0%). Each structure included 10-year free cash flow projections, an occupancy ramp schedule, and a $142.5K conversion budget for transitioning from ILF to ALF operations.
The final deliverable was a 15-page institutional quality presentation with a full sensitivity grid, risk analysis, and a construction vs. purchase comparison.
The analysis gave the client a clear framework to evaluate the deal across multiple structures and make a confident acquisition decision with full visibility into the conversion economics and long-term returns.
Deliverables: 15-page institutional presentation, 3 acquisition structures, 10-year FCF projections, sensitivity grid, risk analysis, conversion budget
Client: Amanda Larrinaga, Turning Tree Properties
Amanda Larrinaga of Turning Tree Properties needed to evaluate a cash out refinance across three 2-family residential properties in Montana. The question was straightforward: does pulling equity out at today's rates make financial sense, or does the higher rate destroy the cash flow?
We built the analysis using actual lender term sheets, not generic rate assumptions. We compared the existing 2.99% loan against a new 6.42% cash out refinance at 50% LTV. The model included a full 30-year amortization schedule for each property showing the year by year impact on cash flow.
The analysis showed that the refinance would swing cash flow from positive $3,138 per year to negative $3,447 per year per property. The client had a clear, data driven answer: the cash out did not make sense at current rates. The analysis saved the client from a decision that would have cost thousands annually across the portfolio.
Deliverables: Cash-out refinance analysis, 30-year amortization schedules, actual lender term sheet comparison
Client: Amanda Larrinaga, Turning Tree Properties
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